Throughout 2022, Russia launched 14 navy satellites: three navigation satellites, two GLONASS-K1 satellites and the final GLONASS-M satellite tv for pc; two digital Lotos-S1 intelligence satellites; three inspector satellites, Cosmos-2558, launched in August, and each Cosmos-2561 and Cosmos-2562 launched in October; 4 reconnaissance satellites, the Neitron radar-imaging satellite tv for pc, Bars-M cartography satellite tv for pc and two EO-MKA (also referred to as EMKA) optical-imaging satellites (each had been misplaced solely a number of weeks after coming into orbit in April and October, respectively); one Meridian-M communication satellite tv for pc; and one Tundra early-warning satellite tv for pc (Russianspaceweb.com, December 14).
With these, in complete, the variety of energetic Russian navy satellites stands at 108, as of December 2022. These embrace 25 GLONASS navigation satellites, 48 communication satellites, eight digital intelligence satellites (together with six Lotos-S1), 5 optical-imaging satellites (together with three Bars-M cartography satellites), two radar-imaging satellites, six early-warning satellites, 5 inspector/house statement satellites, two geodetic satellites and 5 know-how growth satellites.
The frequency of launches this yr was increased than previous years, which partly compensated for delays in GLONASS and Bars-M tasks, amongst others. In the intervening time, Russia maintains its house communication property however struggles with degradation of house navigation techniques and nonetheless faces a decades-long lack in house reconnaissance, which it partially tries to fill by rising digital intelligence capabilities. Nonetheless, Moscow continues to speculate its restricted sources into comparatively ineffective inspector satellites that don’t improve its navy capabilities however function symbolic for sustaining Russia’s position as a great-power rival of america.
To this finish, Russia has tried to keep up its house spending at a secure degree. For 2023, 2024 and 2025, Moscow’s complete deliberate funding for its house applications stands at 257.4 billion rubles ($3.97 billion), 254.5 billion rubles ($3.93 billion) and 253.8 billion rubles ($3.92 billion), respectively (Sozd.duma.gov.ru, September 28), that are similar to the 250.6 billion rubles ($3.88 billion) and 264.2 billion rubles ($4.08 billion) spent in 2021 and 2022, respectively (Sozd.duma.gov.ru, September 30, 2021). The annual share for GLONASS right here is about 25 billion rubles ($387 million) in 2023–2024 and 28 billion rubles ($433 million) in 2025, as in comparison with 25 billion rubles ($387 million) and 27 billion rubles ($418 million) spent in 2021 and 2022, respectively. And the annual share of different navy house tasks for 2022 is estimated at upwards of 70 billion rubles, or simply over $1 billion, much like latest years. Finally, this conservative monetary method doesn’t enable Russia to realize any vital enchancment in its navy house exercise, particularly within the face of an pressing must unfold extra money amongst extra formidable tasks.
In July and October 2022, Russia despatched into orbit the fourth and fifth navigation satellites of the next-generation GLONASS-K1. The primary three GLONASS-K1s had been launched in 2011, 2014 and 2020, respectively, with the primary not operational. Furthermore, the GLONASS-K1 launched in July 2022 could already be affected by some technical points as a result of it’s nonetheless in its flight-test part. This contrasts sharply with the GLONASS-K1 and GLONASS-M satellites that had been despatched into orbit in October and November, respectively, which, as of December 2022, are already within the commissioning part (Glonass-iac.ru, December 14).
The unique plan presumed launching 9 GLONASS-K1 navigation satellites by 2020, with the gradual transition to GLONASS-K2 satellites going down from 2018 to 2020 (RIA Novosti, March 1, 2016; VPK-Information, March 30, 2016). However the plan for launching 9 GLONASS-K1 satellites was postponed for 2020–2022 however has nonetheless not been realized, as just one has been deployed (RIA Novosti, April 5, 2020). In 2021, eight GLONASS-K1 and 4 GLONASS-K2 satellites had been at totally different phases of manufacturing, with the plan to contract 11 extra GLONASS-K2s (Sibirskiy Sputnik, December 14, 2021).
Due to this fact, after the launches of two extra GLONASS-K1 satellites in 2022, now, six navigation satellites of this kind are deliberate for launch by 2024. Moreover, as much as 15 GLONASS-K2 satellites are deliberate to be despatched into orbit by 2030 (Vestnik-glonass.ru, April 18, 27). Regardless that such uncertainty and contradictions in planning appear unusual, it implies that Russia should launch three navigation satellites yearly between 2023 and 2030 to fulfill proclaimed objectives. Nevertheless, the forecast made by high-level managers of the GLONASS challenge, which was printed on the eve of Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine, testified that the speed of deployment won’t exceed two navigation satellites yearly for the present decade (Glonass-iac.ru, January 20). For comparability, Russia decommissioned three navigation satellites throughout 2022. Furthermore, present monetary planning won’t enhance prospects, contemplating that the common annual spending on GLONASS was 28 billion rubles ($1.08 billion) in 2011–2020 and the price of every GLONASS-M satellite tv for pc was at the least three-times decrease than the price of every GLONASS-K1/K2 satellite tv for pc.
Consequently, the additional degradation of the Russian house navigation system is sort of inevitable and relies upon solely on the robustness of the deployed navigation satellites, 13 of which, all GLONASS-M satellites, have expired warranties.
Russia has not but crammed the decades-long lack of high-resolution optical- and radar-imaging house techniques. As of December 2022, the Russian Armed Forces launched two high-resolution optical-imaging satellites, Persona-2 and Persona-3, in 2013 and 2015, respectively, and two radar-imaging satellites, Kondor and Neitron, in 2013 and 2022, respectively. A Pion-NKS satellite tv for pc with artificial aperture radar was additionally despatched into orbit, for the needs of naval radar and digital intelligence. Along with Lotos-S1 satellites, the Pion-NKS belongs to the naval digital intelligence system Liana. Round that very same time, in 2021–2022, three makes an attempt to launch small high-resolution optical-imaging EO-MKA satellites failed (Iki.cosmos.ru, November 14).
In years previous, the Russian navy may depend on the civilian high-resolution optical-imaging Resurs-P satellites, however all three satellites launched between 2013 and 2016 had been decommissioned by 2022. In 2023, Russia plans to deploy a number of civil satellites, which can be utilized by the Russian Armed Forces for reconnaissance functions: one Resurs-P satellite tv for pc and two radar-imaging satellites, the superior Obzor-R and Kondor-FKA, which is predicated on the exported model of the Kondor satellite tv for pc. In 2024–2025, Russia plans to launch a Resurs-P, two Resurs-PMs and another Kondor-FKA (Iki.cosmos.ru, November 14). Contemplating that Russia could depend on storage of imported space-grade electronics bought earlier than 2022 shifting ahead, these plans look slightly real looking. Nevertheless, huge delays for a few of these tasks are extremely possible.
Consequently, little proof helps the notion that Russian navy house coverage is being revised. Moscow’s restricted assets are unfold too skinny amongst too many tasks. In reality, the inertia of planning and lack of important applied sciences and parts mixed with an incapacity to rely successfully on the civilian and business house sectors for navy functions restrict the Kremlin’s choices for ramping up its house applications within the close to future.
By the Jamestown Basis
Extra Prime Reads from Oilprice.com: