An Index Strategy to World Cup Success – Indexology® Weblog

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An Index Strategy to World Cup Success

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Sean Freer

Director, World Fairness Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Soccer fanatics throughout the globe are watching intently to see which of the 32 nations that certified for the FIFA World Cup finals in Qatar will elevate the trophy in glory.

Each 4 years, the worldwide highlight scrutinizes every nation’s footballing prowess (or lack thereof). Past coaches, pundits and tacticians, the World Cup offers loads of fodder for social scientists, economists and even political theorists to investigate and try and determine traits or patterns that will contribute to World Cup success.

If match success have been all the way down to inhabitants measurement, China and India would have certainly gained the cup by now. If the economic system measurement or GDP per capita have been a significant metric, then the U.S., Luxembourg or Singapore would certainly have come near profitable the coveted cup by now. The nations topping the UN’s Human Improvement Index (Switzerland, Norway and Iceland) haven’t gained a World Cup both. The truth is, a lot of these notable mentions not often qualify for the finals.

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) definitely doesn’t purport to have remoted the key ingredient for World Cup success, however we do know indices and are keenly following competing nations which are included within the S&P World BMI (Broad Market Index) and S&P Frontier BMI.

S&P DJI Market Classifications

The S&P World BMI consists of 49 markets, of which 25 are labeled as developed and 24 as rising, whereas the S&P Frontier BMI consists of 31 further markets. The S&P World BMI includes over 14,000 corporations and covers all publicly listed equities with float-adjusted market values above USD 100 million that meet minimal liquidity standards. The S&P Frontier BMI is designed to measure the efficiency of comparatively smaller and fewer liquid markets.

Of the 32 nations which have certified for the 2022 World Cup finals, 20 are included within the S&P World BMI, masking 87.7% of the index’s market capitalization; 15 of those are thought-about developed, whereas the opposite 5 are rising. Seven different competing nations are represented throughout the S&P Frontier BMI, masking simply over a 3rd of the index’s market capitalization, whereas the remaining 5 qualifiers don’t presently meet frontier market standards.

Developed Markets Have Higher FIFA Rankings

Trying on the common FIFA rating of every section, the developed cohort has the bottom at 15.8, adopted by the nations not labeled in S&P DJI’s world fairness index sequence at 25.8. Regardless of having the top-ranked nation (Brazil), the rising cohort’s common rank is 28.2, which is increased than the frontier cohort at 27.1.

Developed Markets Overrepresented on the World Cup Finals

FIFA membership consists of over 200 nations and associations, and solely 25 of these are labeled as developed markets by S&P DJI. Nonetheless, these nations1 symbolize over 40% of the nations (15 of 32) that certified for the 2022 finals and over 60% of the groups that progressed to the spherical of 16.

For the reason that S&P World BMI launched in 1989, there have been eight World Cup finals, two have been gained by an rising market—Brazil—and the opposite six by nations labeled as developed markets—Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

Whereas Brazil is the favourite to be within the World Cup Last on Dec. 18, 2022, kind apart, it appears that evidently nations from the developed markets cohort can have the very best probability of World Cup success. Whereas the frontier cohort has bucked the pattern outperforming rising.

Notable Outperformers and Underperformers

Given every nation’s stature within the S&P World BMI by composition weight and variety of corporations, Canada, Germany and Denmark can be seen as underperformers by way of world market stature and footballing prowess by not progressing past the group stage at this yr’s World Cup.

Whereas Argentina, Brazil and Croatia have outperformed their market stature, they’re extremely positioned of their FIFA rankings—so this isn’t surprising. Stunning outperformers can be Morocco, Ghana and Senegal primarily based on their restricted investable market stature.

S&P Dow Jones Indices Market Classification Methodology could be discovered right here:

1 The U.Okay. is assessed as one developed market however represented in multiples associations inside FIFA—England, Northern Eire, Gibraltar, Scotland and Wales.

The posts on this weblog are opinions, not recommendation. Please learn our Disclaimers.

How Indexing Works for Carbon Markets

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How are modern indices monitoring compliance and voluntary carbon futures markets bringing higher transparency to the vitality transition? S&P DJI’s Jim Wiederhold and KraneShares’ Luke Oliver talk about how first-to-market benchmarks are democratizing entry to world carbon markets.

The posts on this weblog are opinions, not recommendation. Please learn our Disclaimers.

Exploring Energetic vs. Passive in Latin America

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How do lively managers in Latin America stack as much as their benchmarks? Uncover the important thing takeaways from the newest SPIVA Latin America Scorecard with S&P DJI’s Tim Edwards and Ericka Alcántara.

The posts on this weblog are opinions, not recommendation. Please learn our Disclaimers.

S&P ESG Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index – Including a Layer of Sustainability through ESG Screening

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Excessive-dividend-yielding shares have been prevalent in 2022, as rising rates of interest have put downward strain on lengthy length property. On the similar time, market members are more and more in search of to align investments with their private and societal values. The S&P ESG Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats® Index could also be a method that checks each of those packing containers. Launched in March 2021, this index strives to realize low monitoring error and comparable dividend yield to the S&P Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index whereas incorporating significant ESG enchancment.

Combining Dividend Aristocrats and ESG Methodology

The S&P ESG Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index combines the S&P Dividend Aristocrats methodology with a sustainability overlay. To qualify for the index, an organization should first have constantly elevated dividends yearly for at the very least 20 years. This preliminary filter tilts the index towards choosing higher-quality corporations, because the capability to constantly develop dividends over an extended time frame could be a sign of economic energy, self-discipline and sturdy incomes energy.

Subsequent, a number of ESG screens are utilized. The index excludes corporations within the lowest quartile of S&P DJI ESG Scores. Further ESG exclusion evaluations are performed quarterly primarily based on enterprise actions, in addition to United Nations World Compact (UNGC) breaches. These ESG screens serve to boost the already stringent {qualifications} of the Dividend Aristocrats methodology.


Since January 2011, the S&P ESG Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index has generated a 12.92% annualized return versus 11.87% for the S&P 1500TM, whereas exhibiting much less volatility.

Lately, the outperformance of the S&P ESG Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index versus the S&P 1500 has been much more pronounced. 12 months-to-date, the S&P ESG Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index has outperformed the benchmark by 15.25%. One purpose for that is that high-yielding indices, primarily by means of their decrease durations, supplied higher safety in opposition to quickly rising rates of interest in comparison with the benchmark.

Comparability of S&P DJI ESG Scores and Dividend Yields

Exhibit 3 exhibits that the S&P ESG Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index supplied notable S&P DJI ESG Rating enchancment over the S&P Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index. The S&P DJI ESG Rating improved by 11 factors per yr on common, revealing an annual enhance of over 20%.

The S&P ESG Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index and S&P Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index have had comparable yields traditionally, and each have held a big yield benefit over the S&P 1500 (see Exhibit 4). Over the interval examined, the common annual dividend yields for the S&P ESG Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index, S&P Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index and S&P 1500 have been 2.73%, 2.88% and 1.84%, respectively.

Exhibit 5 exhibits the common year-over-year annual share dividend development fee for present S&P ESG Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index constituents. The typical year-over-year dividend development fee over the previous 20 years was 11.26%, far surpassing the common year-over-year U.S. CPI fee of two.35% over the identical interval.


For market members who’re in search of high-quality corporations that align with their private values, in addition to a historical past of secure and enticing dividend funds, the S&P ESG Excessive Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index could also be an choice to contemplate.

The posts on this weblog are opinions, not recommendation. Please learn our Disclaimers.

Diversification Past Borders

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Tutorial theorists typically assert the choice of the place to speculate as extra essential than the choice of what to speculate in. Research counsel that as much as 90% of funding returns are attributable to location.

Regional fairness indices symbolize completely different mixtures of geographic and sector publicity. These variations can doubtlessly enhance the diversification advantages accessible when combining indices. We examine the underlying sector and geographical income exposures of two S&P DJI regional indices and present that using mixtures of fairness indices could enhance an investor’s danger/return potential, in addition to cut back house bias (an anomaly whereby asset allocators obese their home inventory market).

What Is the S&P 500®?

Extensively thought-about the first gauge of the U.S. large-cap inventory market, the S&P 500 is a float-adjusted, market-capitalization-weighted index that displays 500 of the biggest, most well-known corporations domiciled within the U.S. The index incorporates a variety of inclusion standards, together with a profitability display screen. The S&P 500 represents over 80% of the full U.S. market capitalization as measured by the S&P Complete Market Index (TMI). Most of the index’s constituents have a serious world presence, with revenues generated in a variety of international nations. Subsequently, regardless of its U.S. focus, the S&P 500 supplies perception into corporations with a various income base throughout geographies and sectors.

Europe versus the U.S. – Variations in Publicity

The S&P Europe 350® is a European-centric counterpart to the S&P 500. The index focuses on the biggest blue-chip corporations domiciled in 16 European nations, weighted by float-adjusted market capitalization primarily based on a variety of inclusion standards.

We use FactSet Geographic Income Publicity (GeoRev™) information, adjusted for sales-weighted publicity, to know the geographic unfold of constituent revenues for each the S&P 500 and the S&P Europe 350. For instance, corporations within the S&P 500 generate round 70% of their income within the U.S., whereas corporations throughout the S&P Europe 350 generate solely 24% of their income from the identical location.

Exhibit 1 compares the S&P 500 and the S&P Europe 350. It exhibits that the revenues of the S&P Europe 350 have a higher tilt away from the U.S. and towards Europe than the S&P 500. Subsequently, a method combining the 2 indices could result in a extra numerous geographic income publicity.

In observe, industries should not distributed evenly throughout geographies. Exhibit 2 exhibits that the S&P Europe 350 has vital weight in Industrials and Well being Care, reflecting the robust franchises in these sectors in nations corresponding to Germany and France for Industrials and the U.Okay. for Well being Care. The S&P 500 has a better weight in Info Expertise and Communication Providers than the European index.

Exhibit 3 supplies the annualized complete return and the return/danger ratios for varied hypothetical mixtures of the S&P 500 and the S&P Europe 350 over completely different durations ending in September 2022. Exhibit 4 attracts the environment friendly frontier for various mixtures of S&P Europe 350 and S&P 500 allocations. The outcomes present that over longer time durations, a hypothetical mixture of European and U.S. indices supplied a better return and extra favorable danger profile than the S&P Europe 350 funding alone, maybe reflecting the advantages of diversification.


The posts on this weblog are opinions, not recommendation. Please learn our Disclaimers.

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